MTL - The Son of Finance of the Great Age-Chapter 11 Events and immigration in 1984
Chapter 11 Events and Immigration in 1984
In the 1980 U.S. election, Republican candidate Ronald Reagan was elected as the 40th president of the United States, becoming the first U.S. president who was born as an actor.
There was a worldwide economic crisis in the 1970s, and the United States was not immune to it. The entire developed capitalist countries have been trapped in stagflation, which lasted for 10 years.
The so-called stagflation is a term in economics, which refers to the coexistence of economic stagnation and inflation. The emergence of this phenomenon has led to the bankruptcy of Keynesianism, which has long been the mainstream of economics.
Keynesianism advocates that the government actively intervene in the economy and expand aggregate demand by expanding government investment, thereby promoting economic growth.
This proposition allowed the United States to survive the Great Depression in the 1930s. Since then, Keynesianism has become the mainstream economic thought in Western countries until the 1970s.
After Reagan came to power, he adopted the concept of the supply school to formulate economic policies, and reduced the inflation rate by reducing government expenditure and controlling the growth of money supply; he also promoted economic stability and development through tax cuts and accelerated depreciation, and successfully made the U.S. The economy is booming again.
Against this background, the stock market as an "economic barometer" also began to grow by leaps and bounds. At the end of 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Index once again stood at 1,000 points, and has never been lowered since then. In 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high and broke through 2000 points in one fell swoop.
As the securitization rate increased, financial institutions in the United States also began to develop rapidly. Wall Street investment banks began to abandon the partnership system and sought to go public one after another. In 1971, Merrill Lynch became the first investment bank to go public.
The fund industry, which is in the upper reaches of the financial ecological chain, has also sprung up like mushrooms, showing a trend of explosive growth. A lot of capital has been invested in mutual funds. In this case, hedge funds have also begun to gain the favor of some investors.
In 1980, Julian Robertson founded the Tiger Fund. In 1982, the Shaw Hedge Fund was established. Renaissance Technology was also established in this year. Soros has parted ways with Jim Rogers, but his Quantum Fund has already hit Wall Street. reputation. And John Paulson, the legend of hedge funds in later generations, is still working hard for others.
In 1984, due to the unsatisfactory sales of the Mac project that Jobs spent a lot of money on, Apple's performance declined. The company's shareholders were very dissatisfied with Jobs and drove him out of the company he founded. In 1984, Microsoft's sales exceeded 100 million US dollars, becoming a rising star in the PC industry, and it will go public in two years. Cisco will not be established until the end of this year, while Sun was established two years ago. It is a humble company in Silicon Valley. Oracle, which has just changed its name for two years, is now aggressively entering the global market.
The reason why Zhong Shi remembers so many giants in the IT industry is because in his previous life, these technology companies created amazing miracles one after another, shortening the accumulation of wealth from several generations to just a few decades, or even years.
This is in line with Zhong Shi's plan to make money quickly.
The hedge fund industry is very profitable, and Zhong Shi knows the world's financial events in the next few decades, but at this time he still has a little less capital, and he is not qualified to join this feast of capital.
Thinking of this, Zhong Shi couldn't help but sighed, and carefully recalled the major events that would happen in 1984 in his mind, so that the money in his hands could grow rapidly.
His goal is still the US capital market, and the most important thing now is to complete the accumulation of original capital.
Huaxia's capital market doesn't need to be considered at all, not to mention the lack of various financial instruments, even Feilo Audio, which will be released this year, he doesn't want to participate in it.
In November 1984, Feilo Acoustics, China's first public offering, was snapped up by tens of thousands of people as soon as it came out. Zhong Shi even suspected that if he was at the scene, he would definitely be trampled to death by the chaotic crowd.
There is only one opportunity in the past two years, and that is in the foreign exchange market. The yen in 1985 will be an opportunity, but compared with the soaring price of "Cheung Kong Industrial", which one has higher returns, Zhong Shi has to make a good calculation .
Without stock index futures, a powerful tool to make money, it would be slow to make money! Zhong Shi wailed, causing the little yellow dog in the courtyard to bark wildly.
In 1982, the United States launched S&P 500 stock index futures. In 1986, Hong Kong launched Hang Seng Index futures. In the same year, Singapore launched Nikkei 225 Index futures, but these are still nearly two years away.
Zhong Shi can naturally invest in American stock index futures, but he has no way to go abroad these days, and off-market trading is not as easy as later generations. Moreover, at that time, the underlying price of one S&P 500 contract reached hundreds of thousands of dollars. Although there is leverage, Zhong Shi still cannot afford it with his current net worth.
Thinking like this, Zhong Shi fell asleep heavily.
…
Time passed quickly, and in the blink of an eye, it was the end of 1984. On December 19 of this year, Zhao Dongyang, then Prime Minister of China, and Mrs. Thatcher, the British Prime Minister, signed the "Sino-British Joint Statement" in Yanjing, making the The future of Hong Kong has become brighter.
In the previous September, Mrs. Thatcher arrived in Yanjing and discussed with the Chinese leaders about the future of Hong Kong. As soon as the news came out, a crisis of confidence broke out in Hong Kong, and the wave of immigrants surged. Many countries extended their support to Hong Kong. Olive Branch wants to catch all the rich and professional in Hong Kong.
If people immigrate, they will inevitably take their wealth with them. Many people have already made plans for a rainy day. They first transfer their wealth abroad, and then carry their passports with them.
Under this background, the stock market also fluctuated, and the Hang Seng Index continued to slide. By the end of 1984, the Hang Seng Index had fallen by more than 670 points.
What's more serious is that many large companies based in Hong Kong have announced that they will relocate their registration places. In March 1984, the Hong Kong Jardine Group, which had been established for 150 years, announced that due to concerns about the future of Hong Kong, it decided to move its registration from Hong Kong to Bermuda. As soon as the news came out, the entire Hong Kong business community was in turmoil, and the Hang Seng Index plummeted 62 points as a result.
Starting from Jardine Harmony, Hong Kong companies have been relocating. The stock prices of many large companies have plummeted. It is a good time for Zhongshi to build warehouses and absorb goods.
Thinking of this, Zhong Shi couldn't sit still any longer, walked to the phone, and made an international call.
At that time, there were no program-controlled telephones, only dial telephones. Every time Zhong Shi saw this ancient telephone, he would feel a sense of intimacy in his heart.
When I was a trader at Morgan Stanley, I had to make hundreds of calls to this kind of phone every day, and the entire trading floor was filled with the sound of "ringing" and "bang bang". It's not that investment banks can't afford new, state-of-the-art phones that they love because they won't break!
Traders face tens of millions, even hundreds of millions of transactions every day, and millions of profits can be lost or lost in the blink of an eye, so don't expect this group of emotionally capricious people to treat the phone gently.
It is not easy to make an international long-distance call these days. You have to call the local telecom bureau first, then the telecom bureau connects you to Southeast China, and then connects you to Yanjing, and finally to Hong Kong. This trip will take at least half an hour, and the phone bill is also very expensive, so Liao Chengde usually calls.
"Hello, Zhong Sheng?" After waiting for almost an hour, Liao Chengde's Hong Kong-style Mandarin came from the other end of the phone.
"Hong Kong farmer, how is Hong Kong doing recently?" Zhong Shi was getting impatient for a long time, and he couldn't speak politely.
Hearing Zhong Shi call him "Hong Kong Nong", Liao Chengde sighed, feeling helpless in his heart. In 1978, Hong Kong TVB broadcast a TV series "Man in the Net", in which there was a leading actor named A Can, a rural boy who smuggled into Hong Kong from the mainland, and became a household image. Later, "A Can" became synonymous with peasants and stupidity in Chinese areas of the world.
However, since Liao Chengde met Zhong Shi, he has never dared to say this word easily. This kid is not only proficient in Cantonese, but also understands various phenomena in Hong Kong society. The most important thing is that Liao Chengde himself also smuggled from the mainland. to Hong Kong.
"Zhong Sheng, Hong Kong is in chaos now. Many people are planning to immigrate. I am afraid that the Workers and Peasants Party will take over Hong Kong and average them out. I heard that Mr. Li Ka-shing is going to invest in foreign countries. Can we buy Cheung Kong's stock? ?" Liao Chengde suppressed the wild thoughts in his heart, and truthfully told Zhong Shi everything he knew.
"It's a great opportunity. Buy it quickly and put all your wealth into it. Don't worry, Chang Shi and He Huang will not go abroad. The relationship between Li Ka-shing and Huaxia's top management is very good, far beyond your imagination. The Huo family, the Bao family, the Li family, the Dong family, etc. are all attracting attention in Yanjing, and even in 1997, there will be nothing wrong with their enterprises." Zhong Shi smiled and said nonchalantly.
"Really? How do you know? In fact, I also have a plan to immigrate to Australia, what do you think?" Liao Chengde felt very strange, how could this kid even know this.
He naturally couldn't imagine that Zhongshi came from the future thirty years later. In that era of information explosion, what news could not be found? In 2010, there was even a website called "WikiLeaks", which revealed a large number of confidential documents of the US Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and among those documents related to Hong Kong, it revealed the relationship between a large number of local rich people in Hong Kong and high-level Chinese officials.
"What are you afraid of? China's top management has already introduced the 'one country, two systems' policy. As long as you don't want to get involved in politics, there is no need to emigrate." Zhong Shi curled his lips and said disdainfully.
"That's right. When we do business, we are most afraid of getting involved with the government! You don't know how much trouble there is in doing business in the mainland..." When Liao Chengde talked about politics, he felt bitter. Received courtesy, but there was always someone following him, staring at him vaguely.
"Okay, okay, long-distance calls are very expensive, so you don't need to tell your thoughts. Let me give you an advice. I will end the investment business in the mainland as soon as possible, and invest all my wealth in the stock market. I guarantee you will make money." One more thing, please help me find out if foreign exchange futures, especially Japanese yen futures, can be traded in Hong Kong, and tell me as soon as possible!" Zhong Shi quickly interrupted him with an order Said to Liao Chengde in a calm tone.
After Liao Chengde on the other end of the phone repeated it, Zhong Shi couldn't wait to hang up the phone and made a loud "clang".
"This **** habit!" Zhong Shi cursed secretly in his heart, and then smiled wryly.
(end of this chapter)
