MTL - The Rebirth of the Financial Hegemon-v3 Chapter 105 Stronger dollar hits the world
In the financial investment world, many people will compare Druckenmiller to Soros.
Many people will think that Druckenmiller is the second George Soros.
Even Druckenmiller is better than Soros in some aspects.
However, Druckenmiller doesn't think so.
In his eyes, Soros is the most worthy of his respect.
Druckenmiller himself knew that his strength was anticipating trends, but that was more of an innate intuition.
Soros is different.
Soros's greatness is based on the accumulation of rich life experience, which is a kind of philosophical perception.
A junior trader would think that the market is all about numbers.
As long as you have strong mathematical ability, as long as you can find the secrets in the numbers, you can thrive forever.
But at the level of Druckenmiller, there is no way to understand what a transaction is.
Psychology and philosophy are the most fundamental things.
Even the analysis of economic theory and the judgment of the general trend must be ranked after these two.
So, when Soros said he understood something, Druckenmiller probably understood what he was doing wrong.
"Stanley, a few months ago we analyzed that the baht would depreciate, and I still see it that way.
But in the end we failed.
It is not that our analysis is wrong, but that we have fallen into a misunderstanding of thinking.
Because we think the baht will depreciate, when we see the baht elastic band being broken, we take it for granted that the baht has fallen.
Then, we hurriedly attacked.
One wrong move, one step wrong.
So far it's all lost.
We, including others, are being led by the nose without knowing it. "
"You mean Boulder Capital?"
"No no, not Boulder Capital.
Putting the blame on someone else is cowardly.
Stanley, we are people not gods.
We have been too smooth these years, and we have lost our awe of the market.
We fail because we are ill-prepared.
There is a saying in "Sun Tzu's Art of War" that the soldier is the major event of the country, the place of life and death, and the way of life and death, which must be observed.
However, we have forgotten this in the long-term smooth sailing.
If it were you ten years ago, what would you do? "
Soros' words made Druckenmiller sweat profusely.
What would he have done ten years ago?
It must be a step-by-step, steady and steady, when there is enough profit support to determine the death point of the Thai baht and then carry out the final blow.
If the attack fails, they will retreat in an orderly manner.
But now.
When there is not enough preparation, they attack in haste, and when they fail, they flee like deserters.
It is always difficult for people to notice their own mistakes.
With Soros' reminder, Druckenmiller finally realized why he couldn't understand why he would fail.
Druckenmiller bowed to Soros sincerely.
"Thank you, George!"
A smile appeared on Soros' old face, and he patted Druckenmiller on the shoulder.
"Stanley, you are my best partner, and I'm glad you can realize this now. There is a saying in the Chinese state that it's never too late to make amends. So, you don't have to blame yourself."
"I see!"
"..."
......
In financial markets, there is always some logic behind the scenes.
Positive, it is reasonable to rise.
The good falls, that is, the good is realized and the bad is turned.
Conversely, the same is true.
Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke's speeches revealed that the Fed may further cut interest rates to release dollar liquidity.
Under this expectation, the dollar ended its upward momentum and turned downward.
Reason, very simple.
The rate cut releases the dollar liquidity, and the dollar in circulation in the market will increase.
As supply increases, prices should naturally fall.
This explanation by major economists and professors in the world is very consistent with the logical relationship of economics.
Interestingly, though.
The Fed did cut rates as revealed by two big names.
12:00 ET, 24:00 Hong Kong time.
The Fed released its final results as scheduled.
Beginning on January 7, local time, the federal funds rate will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points.
The Fed said in a statement that monetary policy will remain loose after this rate cut, and the actual interest rate path will depend on the economic outlook and data, and the Fed's judgment on the pace of interest rate cuts is still "gradual."
In addition, the Fed expects that interest rates may be lowered to 1.075% by the end of 1997, calculated at a 25 basis point rhythm, which means that the Fed may cut interest rates four times this year.
Logically speaking, the Fed may enter a rate-cutting cycle, which is negative for the dollar.
That night, the Hong Kong TV station broadcast the views of some well-known international investment companies on the future trend of the US dollar.
Jason Carwell, a well-known analyst at JPMorgan 0 Chase Investments, said.
The Fed's rate cut this time represents the official entry into the rate-cut cycle of the federal rate. In the next 12 months, it is expected that more than 100 billion US dollars will flow into the market from banks.
Therefore, in the future, the US dollar will have a high probability of ending its rise and entering a downward trend, and it is not ruled out that it will continue to break the price of $75.
A spokesman for Goldman Sachs' investment analysis department said.
When the federal interest rate enters the interest rate cut cycle, the US dollar will inevitably follow the downward trend of interest rates for a downward channel.
...
A number of well-known investment departments have expressed their views on the future of the dollar.
One in the morning Hong Kong time.
Global markets suddenly rioted within an hour of the Fed's rate decision.
As the major investment banks speculated, the dollar suddenly plunged sharply.
In just half an hour, the decline reached 1%.
affected by the weaker dollar.
Gold, silver, crude oil and even copper, which has been weak in recent years, all saw sharp gains.
With silver the best trend, within half an hour, the increase was as high as 3.5%.
The Dow Jones index and the Nasdaq index also followed the opposite trend of the dollar.
After one o'clock in the morning, there was a violent upside.
The currency market also reacted differently.
The pound, the yen, and the two major currencies rose almost simultaneously.
The Thai baht, which has skyrocketed recently, is also on the upside again.
During the session, it once rose to 22.788.
Singapore.
Boulder Capital Trading Department.
Liu Qiang was talking on the phone, nodding from time to time to answer.
"Yes, boss, I understand... yes, okay. Then you should rest early!"
After hanging up the phone, Liu Qiang's eyes flashed for a while.
"Clap clap clap..."
Liu Qiang clapped his hands.
"Brothers, cheer me up. The boss just explained that the year-end bonus has been placed under your feet. If it can be done a year ago, the year-end bonus will be 1 million per person."
"Oh hoo..."
Money can always bring infinite excitement.
All the traders barked like wolves, stimulated by the million-year-end bonus.
"Show your masturbation hand speed!"
"..."
At 3 o'clock in the morning, the dollar, which had experienced a rapid decline, suddenly changed its trend, and the price suddenly counterattacked under the large-scale buying.
After five minutes.
The USD chart ~www.novelbuddy.com~ formed a 'v' pattern.
almost in sync.
Crude oil, gold, copper and silver all plunged suddenly and violently.
six in the morning.
International markets closed.
The Dow and Nasdaq rose 2 percent.
The U.S. dollar index rose 1 percent.
Crude oil, gold, etc., the largest decline of nearly 5%.
The yen, down 0.8 percent.
The Thai baht also saw its biggest drop in recent sessions.
Closing price.
23.338.
The dollar is strong, blowing up the world.
