A Wall Street Genius's Final Investment Playbook-Chapter 276 : The Invisible Hand (11)

At last, the AI war I had designed entered its fourth phase.

In Phase 1, I completed the task of dividing friend from foe.

In Phase 2, I induced a head-on collision between the two camps.

In Phase 3, I succeeded in expanding the frontlines by attaching allies to each faction.

So then, what’s the next step?

‘With the scale this big, it’s about time to wrap things up.’

Phase 4 is to collapse the enemy camp from within.

In other words, it meant breaking apart the alliances the enemy had so painstakingly built.

I was planning to turn one of the macros on Gooble’s side to our team.

Of course, it wasn’t going to be easy, which is exactly why the process of ‘persuasion’ was necessary.

That’s why I rolled the dice— and the one who got picked was none other than Stein.

‘Well, anyone would’ve been fine, really.’

I immediately mobilized the Delphi Research Institute to publish a report.

<Recovery Without Rebound: The Illusion of Brazil’s Fiscal Health and Its Consequences>

It was a direct attack on the Brazil position Stein had revealed at the idea dinner.

Stein had judged that the Brazilian market, which had shown weakness for two consecutive years, was finally about to rebound.

He had built a mid-term long position centered on government bonds and infrastructure sectors, relying on signs of a recovery in the real, stabilized bond yields, recovering commodity prices, and easing political risks.

But I released a report that presented the exact opposite view through the Delphi Research Institute.

‘A response should be coming soon.’

—And just as I thought that—

Bzzzt!

The phone rang.

An unknown number.

The voice that came through the moment I picked up was short and firm.

[That won’t work on me.]

There was no introduction, but judging by the context, this had to be Stein.

“I’m not sure what you mean.”

[I mean that this kind of threat won’t make me back off my investment.]

His voice was much calmer than I had expected.

‘So he’s not reacting like he did with Atlas.’

Back then, he had immediately recoiled the moment I touched his position.

But this time, Stein didn’t show a hint of retreat.

[Besides, you wouldn’t actually go after Brazil.]

The reason I so openly targeted Brazil was clear.

I wanted to send a message: ‘If you pull out from Gooble, I’ll withdraw from Brazil.’

But he seemed to think I wouldn’t really go after Brazil in earnest.

In other words, he was convinced I was just bluffing and wouldn’t actually make a move.

[Bluffing doesn’t work on me.]

“Bluffing, huh…”

[Isn’t that your style? Throw out a few reports, rile up the retail investors, shake the board, and wait for your opponent to chicken out and back off? Sorry to say, but that trick doesn’t work on me.]

Well, I could understand why he saw it that way.

Until now, whether in front of the quants or against Atlas...

I had never really made a move.

‘Too much credibility can be a problem, too.’

By the time things started to escalate, the ‘persuasion’ had already worked, so I never had to go all the way to action.

That track record piled up to the point where some started to believe I had never intended to act in the first place.

But that was a mistake.

“That’s disappointing. Bluffing, you say… I’ve always been sincere.”

[You really think I’ll believe that?]

“Well, it’s fine if you don’t. Real trust isn’t born from words—it comes from actions.”

It’s not easy to show someone your true intentions.

“I’ll prove it with my actions from now on.”

Click.

The moment I hung up, I moved.

<Pareto Bets $100 Million on Brazil CDS, Foreign Currency Bonds, and ETF Put Options… Establishes All-Out Short Position>

Stein was long.

I took the opposite short position and made sure the media accidentally caught wind of it.

The reaction was immediate. 𝓯𝙧𝓮𝓮𝒘𝓮𝙗𝙣𝒐𝒗𝒆𝓵.𝓬𝓸𝒎

[How should we interpret Pareto’s Brazil position? Could this be the start of a real attack, like what happened with China?]

That was the power of reputation.

Normally, news wouldn’t go wild just because some hedge fund took a short position.

But what if the guy who brought down China had now set his sights on Brazil?

CNBC convened an emergency panel to analyze my move.

[Well… Ha Si-heon’s risk scenario does make sense. But what stands out is the size of the position. It’s just $100 million. Not exactly pocket change, but compared to Pareto’s total AUM or the global macro market, this doesn’t qualify as an all-out assault. It’s more likely a hedge against risk.]

In short?

The interpretation was that I wasn’t launching a full-scale attack on Brazil—just taking out a little “insurance.”

Not enough to shake the market.

But the market didn’t see it that way.

Retail investors were the first to react.

—The Messiah has arrived at last! My portfolio is ready for resurrection!

—Been waiting for your next revelation!

—Been saving up rent money all this time! Every time the landlord knocked, I hid in the bathroom...!

—So it’s a Brazil short this time?

—Truly, I say to you: Just as the Amazon’s lush jungles flourish, and more glorious than the sacred Carnival of Rio...

—May your profits be deeper and richer than the blessed coffee of Brazil...

Short orders flooded into the Brazil ETF, EWZ, and the real shifted clearly—if slightly—into a downward trend.

And CDS premiums quietly began to rise.

That was a sign that some institutional investors were starting to act.

It may not have been a seismic event…

But it was more than enough to show I meant business.

I dialed the number I had saved under Stein’s name.

“Has my sincerity still not reached you?”

After a moment of silence, his voice came through.

[You’re trying hard. But if I were the type to get shaken by this much noise, I wouldn’t have taken this position to begin with. My scenario doesn’t change with this level of volatility.]

“So you still think it’s a bluff?”

He still seemed convinced I was just trying to scare him.

If that’s the case, I had only one thing to say.

“I’ll keep doing my best until my sincerity gets through.”

Click.

I hung up again.

‘It’s a bit tedious, but…’

Sincerity doesn’t get across easily.

There’s only one answer in times like this.

Show it ‘consistently.’

***

A few days later.

Stein’s head was in a whirl.

‘This isn’t right…’

He thought he had already seen through the likes of Ha Si-heon.

After all, what he’d shown the quants at Triangle Club...

And the way he leaked that Delphi report targeting Atlas...

Ha Si-heon’s tactics had always been consistent.

‘It’s a bluff.’

He shows his bullets, but never pulls the trigger.

With retail investors in one hand and his “Black Swan Reports” in the other, he pressures his opponents, but always avoids landing a direct hit.

He was a man who threatened with weapons in hand but never used them.

The guy who always had his finger on the nuke button but never actually pushed it—that was Ha Si-heon’s M.O.

But now—

<Pareto Bets $100M on Brazil CDS, Foreign Bonds, ETF Puts… All-Out Short Position Established>

This time, Ha Si-heon had really fired the bullets.

A hundred million dollars’ worth of them.

“For your own good, I suggest you pull out now. That guy… he’s unhinged in a very specific way.”

When Atlas had called to warn him, Stein had just scoffed.

—You think I’d be scared of a bluff that costs a measly hundred million?

He thought it was laughable.

A hundred million? That sounded like a prank.

But then—

<Pareto’s Brazil Short Tops $200 Million>

<Market Unrest Grows as Pareto Expands Short to $300M>

<Pareto Raises Brazil Position to $500M… Begins Full-Scale Pressure>

As the numbers grew, a strange sense of unease crept into Stein’s mind.

Of course, he knew what Ha Si-heon was up to.

‘He’s trying to rattle me.’

The guy called every day.

“Has my sincerity reached you yet?”

And every time Stein snorted in response—

“I’ll try again today.”

He’d hang up.

And just like that, the day after each polite call, the size of the bet inevitably increased.

It was a psychological operation aimed squarely at Stein.

However, Stein’s feelings as he watched this unfold grew increasingly complex.

‘Is he out of his mind?’

Normally, a hedge fund’s positions are crafted with precision.

Every move is made within the bounds of the balance sheet and risk models—it’s like a game.

No one pulls out a sword just for intimidation and then sprinkles their clients’ money on the floor.

But—

When Stein pointed that out during one of their calls, Ha Si-heon responded leisurely.

[Ah, it’s fine. My fund has a 20% self-capital ratio. I can move however I like within that boundary.]

In other words, he wasn’t using other people’s money—this was his own.

So, he didn’t need anyone’s permission.

[More importantly, do you believe in my sincerity now?]

[Heh, I see. Still not quite there. That’s my fault. I’ll just have to try harder.]

Click.

The moment he hung up, Stein felt a wave of anxiety.

‘Don’t tell me he’s planning to increase his position again.’

Ha Si-heon’s position had already grown to nearly $800 million.

At this point, it was far too large to be called a mere bluff.

But—

It was hard to believe he was seriously betting in that direction.

‘It doesn’t make sense.’

Brazil had already been downgraded twice this year.

The real had hit bottom and was now starting to rebound.

There was little profit to be made from shorting.

Besides...

‘Targeting Brazil at this timing... it’s like saying the country will default.’

That would be a full-on disaster scenario.

The chances of it happening were extremely low.

No, no matter how he looked at it, it was virtually impossible.

Even so—

He couldn’t just ignore it.

[These kinds of bets from Ha Si-heon usually lead to one thing. What’s the probability of a Black Swan event?]

Exactly.

Ha Si-heon was a Black Swan forecasting expert.

When people say, “That’s practically impossible,” most feel reassured.

But when the opponent is Ha Si-heon, it’s hard to relax.

‘What the hell is he thinking?’

It had to be one of two things:

He was taking losses just to shake Stein—

Or, he had actually discovered some 0.001% possibility no one else could see.

Stein couldn’t decide.

At this point, it was less confusion and more chaos.

In the end, he decided to consult someone who had prior experience dealing with Ha Si-heon.

The first person he contacted was Great Shark.

However—

[To think you'd come to a pathetic guy like me for advice! What a joke!]

What he got in return wasn’t advice—it was mockery.

But Stein had expected this much and endured patiently.

Eventually, after a long round of sarcastic rambling, Great Shark concluded with this:

[Be thankful the guy hasn’t gone on air yet. That’s when things really start.]

He had watched the broadcast live too, and Stein felt a chill go down his spine.

If things already felt this unstable now, and the “real game” hadn’t even begun…

That was terrifying.

But—

‘Maybe he doesn’t actually know.’

Come to think of it, when Great Shark had faced Ha Si-heon, the man had only been a rookie analyst at Goldman.

Only one person had gone up against the true fund manager version of Ha Si-heon—

Ackman.

There was no one else.

[Tsk tsk… After seeing what I went through, you still haven’t learned?]

Even Ackman, who had held his tongue all this time, now unleashed a stream of mockery at Stein.

But thanks to Stein’s patience, something valuable finally emerged from Ackman’s tirade.

“Why is Ha Si-heon making this kind of bet? It doesn’t even look profitable…”

[Ah, that?]

There was a strange calm in Ackman’s tone.

As if he knew something.

But he didn’t seem willing to give up the answer for free.

[I can tell you. But on one condition. Didn’t you once say I should be skipped over in the MESH rotation?]

He had.

Ackman was in line to manage Triangle’s massive capital through MESH.

Stein had always argued that Ackman’s turn should be skipped.

But now, the Ha Si-heon issue was far more urgent than Ackman.

So Stein grimaced and said he would respect Ackman’s MESH slot.

Only then did he get his answer.

[It’s not that he ignores profit and loss. If anything, he’s obsessed with it. But his calculation method is completely different from ours.]

“His calculation method is different?”

[It was the same during Herbalife. Do you know why I stuck with my position to the bitter end? His win rate was only 0.001%. Which means I had a 99% chance of winning. But he went all in—$1 billion, $2 billion—based on that 0.001%.]

“That’s just insane.”

[Exactly. He’s insane.]

“But… aside from him being insane, there’s no Black Swan possibility in Brazil. There’s not even a 0.001% chance of that happening.”

Stein was confident in his analysis.

Ha Si-heon’s current bet couldn’t possibly succeed.

That’s what made it all so confusing.

‘Then why, Ha Si-heon?’

Then, Ackman quietly offered a single line:

[Then there’s only one answer. He’s after a 0.001% that isn’t in Brazil, something you can’t see.]

“What is it?”

Stein swallowed and asked.

But the answer that came back was blunt.

[How would I know that?]

It didn’t solve the problem, but it was still a useful hint.

‘Ha Si-heon… isn’t trying to make a profit from Brazil.’

But what his true target was remained unknown.

[Have you tried talking to him?]

“If you mean phone calls, we talk every day.”

[No, I mean an actual conversation. Wouldn’t it be best to ask him directly what he wants?]

And just as Stein was mulling this over after hanging up—

Bzzzt—

The phone rang.

From the receiver came that now-familiar, overly cheerful voice.

[Do you feel my sincerity now?]

That damn sincerity…

He’d heard it so many times it was nauseating.

[I’m sure it’s still not enough. Then I’ll just try a bit mo—]

“Wait.”

Today, Stein cut him off before he could hang up.

If he let it go on, the guy would just hang up and raise the bet again.

Following Ackman’s advice, Stein had decided to attempt a real conversation.

At the very least, he would try to listen to what the guy actually wanted.

“What do you want? Me to pull out of Gooble?”

[That’s the beginning.]

“The beginning…?”

So it wasn’t the whole story.

“Then what’s the endgame?”

After a moment of silence—

A completely unexpected answer came through the line.

[You already know, don’t you? Switch over to the Stark camp.]

And at last, Stein realized— what Ha Si-heon had truly been aiming for.