MTL - Wall Street Legend-Chapter 390 public relations
Chapter 390 Public Relations
Ye Dongqing took the time to finish the estimation, and asked the members of his think tank to help estimate the impact.
The conclusion drawn is that the damage is relatively large, but it has not reached the point of being uncontrollable. After all, there are not many real estate buyers who have defaulted on subprime mortgages. People are still immersed in the dream that housing prices will continue to rise, and they are willing to repay even if they borrow money. mortgage.
This is probably good news. His goal is to prevent further expansion of risks, and he doesn't have to create a small economic crisis. He doesn't care whether the big companies are alive or not. Don't take money from innocent middle-class and poor people. Just roll away.
Speaking of the harm of subprime loans, in addition to the subprime mortgage itself, it is mainly reflected in the CDS market. CDS is the abbreviation of "credit default swap".
The reason why many people hurriedly called him to inquire about the specific situation was that subprime loans had too much influence on the CDS market. Once risks appeared, they would suffer heavy losses, and many companies in the banking, securities, insurance and other industries would go bankrupt. Big mold.
Speaking of harm, even if the fire is ignited by the United States, there is a high probability that the whole world will pay for it in the end. The influence of the dollar is not vegetarian. If it really causes trillions of dollars in losses, the United States will probably let India The banknote machines are running continuously, and the crazy money printing mode has been started. In the end, it is unlucky for the weaker developing countries.
Ye Dongqing remembers that in her previous life, when the subprime mortgage crisis swept the world, it directly led some countries to adopt flood-like financial stimulus measures. If there was too much money, there was nowhere to go, and then the housing prices were pushed up. The most unlucky ones were ordinary people.
In this way, many people around the world should thank him for his success.
It is not just the United States. With the acceleration of economic globalization, the economic crisis can affect more than just one or a few individuals, especially the United States, which occupies a dominant position in the global economy. It has already "kidnapped" the global economy. economy.
The phone has been turned off, and after lighting the fire, it will start playing and disappear.
It is estimated that the specific impact will not appear until tomorrow. Tomorrow is Sunday in the United States, and the market is still closed, but it is already Monday in Asia. It depends on whether the fire can reach the Asian market, and the approximate loss can be calculated based on market conditions. scale.
This has nothing to do with Ye Dongqing, because Ye Dongqing does not hold any CDS contracts in the subprime mortgage market. Whether it is hedge funds or Danshui Investment Group, they have already started their activities and are ready to enter the market to make money. preparation.
The water was muddied by Ye Dongqing, and there were more big fish. In addition to the three credit rating agencies, a series of related companies were also targeted by him.
It is a pity that the subprime mortgage CDS market has not yet reached its peak, and the panic caused will probably not be too great, so it is certain that you can make money, the key is how much you can make...
I went to Danshui Investment Group and personally communicated with the members of a working group to ensure that there were no mistakes in every step.
Here is trying to attack the subprime mortgage market and credit rating agencies, as is the hedge fund side. In fact, they really want to swallow all of this cake, but they have to deal with the investors of hedge fund companies. If they eat too badly, they will cause trouble.
Trying to contain the crisis before it became more serious, the impact of the subprime mortgage this time is definitely not as great as it was in the previous life.
Because of the butterfly effect, many things have already changed, so Ye Dongqing is not worried that this will affect her business. She usually keeps an eye on it, so that the companies she invests in will not go astray.
In the beginning, you can invest according to the memory of your previous life, but now you can’t. The current world has been influenced by him, and it has gone to a different fork in the road, so that you can no longer be blind before making a decision, and you must use your brain more.
The PR speed of those credit rating companies was much faster than Ye Dongqing imagined.
At this moment, I was giving a speech to dozens of traders, telling them their selling targets and precautions for the next week, and suddenly received a message from William’s assistant, saying that the CEOs of Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s were visiting at the same time.
Just glanced at them, and continued to say what he wanted to say before going to receive these two.
To be honest, Ye Dongqing was a little confused, unable to figure out why they came to find her.
If it is a questioning, it will only lose face in vain in the end, and take the initiative to come to the door and stretch out his face to Ye Dongqing, because this gang has been recognized by the Securities and Exchange Commission as a "National Recognized Rating Organization (NRSRO, and it does have many irregular flaws. Fall into the eyes of money.
If it's an apology, it doesn't even make sense.
This time Ye Dongqing has offended these credit rating giants severely. Even if it is only a conservative estimate, they will drop about 20% of their market value on Monday. What is more serious is that the negative impact will continue to be far-reaching. A group of shareholders If you don't come to beat him up, you're already relatively restrained.
Wearing a black suit, he returned to his office without haste. After greeting each other, Sharma, the CEO of Standard & Poor's, said: "Leo, I used to admire you very much, and I even let you My son learns from you, but what you did this time is simply infuriating. We have always maintained a fair attitude in dealing with every business. Maybe there is some misunderstanding? As far as I know, we all give give your company a high rating, especially the internet company Facebook.”
I didn’t hear any apology from this sentence, just like all big companies, they are dead ducks until the last moment, and they are unwilling to bear any negative impact.
There is neither a personal relationship nor a friend. Ye Dongqing's answer is very straightforward: "Are subprime housing loans and other financial products overvalued? I think you know better than me, don't you? In the past four years Because of the subprime mortgage CDO, your performance has been rising year after year, and you have made enough money. You have almost forgotten what is the most important thing for a credit rating company. If you are not fair and objective, it is tantamount to playing with fire. You believe in a street girl, Can a housewife who works part-time in a convenience store afford high-interest housing loans for a long time? Currently, they are in the stage of continuous interest rate hikes. They are bearing higher and higher interest rates on subprime mortgage housing. Your responsibility is to inform investors in advance potential risks, rather than blindly to make money to promote the development of the subprime CDO market."
At present, there is a strange phenomenon in the global economy. The central banks of all countries are unwilling to raise interest rates.
There are many reasons. The first is that people do not have high inflation expectations, so the central bank does not want to raise interest rates too quickly, puncture the real estate bubble, and cause the economy to collapse.
Secondly, in the context of economic globalization, central banks of various countries are playing football, that is, if the United States raises interest rates sharply, the central banks of other countries do not need to raise interest rates, because after the demand in the United States is controlled, the demand in the world will be suppressed, which will have a negative impact on global inflation. have an inhibitory effect, and vice versa.
This round of interest rate hikes started in June last year, and has raised interest rates six times until now. The overheating of the economy has caused housing prices and the stock market to rise. They are currently in a false prosperity. The signs of crisis have gradually emerged, especially in the secondary housing market. The proportion is constantly increasing, and it has not exceeded the warning line, but it is fast...
(end of this chapter)
