Became a Strategist with a 100 Intelligence and 100\% Accuracy-Chapter 95: The Battle of Hisphil Castle (5)

"......!"

Jinor’s face turned pale for a moment upon hearing my words—

Then, gradually, his expression shifted into one of confusion.

The initial shock of my statement aside, what truly puzzled him was the confidence with which I had declared, "Anima will lose this battle."

"Swen, after all that cryptic nonsense, how did you come to such a conclusion?"

Yuri was not Luna.

Even if I went to her and simply stated this as a fact, she wouldn’t believe me. At best, she’d react just like Jinor did.

If I wanted to convince them, I needed to support my conclusion with solid reasoning.

So then—

Why exactly was I going to such lengths to help the Aishus Army?

I had already repaid my debt to Yuri. No, considering that Airen had risked her life carrying out missions for her, if anything, I felt like Yuri still owed me something.

And yet, if I was going to help them regardless, what was my reason?

I didn’t have to look far—

I was technically part of the Aishus Army myself.

Based on what Anima had told me and my own assessment of this country's current state,

If something happened to her, the entire Aishus Army would collapse at an alarming rate.

And not just her—if Hernandorf, Emma, or Epinnel fell, the result would be the same.

There was no need to overthink it.

Fueled by revenge, they would recklessly throw their forces into battle.

At first, that kind of emotional fervor might bring them a few victories,

But in a prolonged war, they would inevitably fall to Serpina’s superior numbers.

This was such an obvious outcome that I didn’t even need my intelligence to predict it.

Their strength—the deep trust they shared, their bond forged through hardship—

Was a rare asset in these chaotic times.

In a world where betrayal was common and switching allegiances was not even considered disgraceful,

Having people who could genuinely trust and rely on each other was invaluable.

Just look at me and Airen. We were managing just fine despite our complicated circumstances.

But.

For every strength, there was a weakness.

And their weakness was painfully clear.

Even someone as capable as Jinor was being subtly sidelined.

And just as I had thought earlier—

If any one of those five fell, the entire nation would collapse in an instant.

If Yuri lost her composure and started making rash decisions,

Then both Airen and I would lose our safe refuge.

And beyond my immediate concerns—

If the Aishus Army was crushed by Serpina too soon, it would be a major problem for the future.

In the grand scheme of things, maintaining the balance of power among Brans, Serpina, and Aishus was the most beneficial outcome for Lunarian’s Army.

‘Which means... I have to step in.’

Now that I had made my decision, it was time to lay the groundwork.

If I wanted to persuade Yuri, I needed to organize my thoughts here first.

And the person I needed to convince right now was Jinor.

"Lord Jinor. Would you come over here for a moment?"

Jinor didn’t respond immediately.

Instead, he gave me a puzzled look—

Then, after a brief pause, he approached me with a serious expression.

Hisphil Castle...

I recalled the time Airen and I had mapped out the battle plans in Arnel Castle.

Back then, Hisphil Castle was a border fortress that faced Charam’s forces.

Which meant—

I should have a map of that area somewhere.

I pulled out the appropriate map from my belongings and spread it out on the table.

"In the end, all battles take place on land."

I had played this game for over ten thousand hours.

I knew every possible scenario inside and out.

If Anima’s defeat was near-certain, then I could figure out how it would happen.

‘Let’s see...’

If Anima had set out from Raklein Castle, there were three possible routes.

But I didn’t need to go over them one by one.

She would undoubtedly take the shortest path—

The straight, direct route.

It was rough terrain, but it was the fastest.

"In your opinion, Lord Jinor, if one were planning an ambush, which route would be the best choice?"

"...Swen, you’ve been dodging my questions and only responding with more questions. What exactly are you getting at?"

"I’m explaining precisely why Anima will lose."

"That’s what you call an explanation?"

Jinor still looked unconvinced.

From his perspective, I probably sounded like I was speaking in riddles.

So how should I handle this?

I could take my time laying out my reasoning...

But right now, I needed to push forward more aggressively.

"Yes. Just answer the question. I promise I’ll give you an explanation that makes sense."

"......."

If I had just recently joined the Aishus Army, this might not have worked.

But I had already produced several results.

And the person who had observed my successes most closely was Jinor himself.

I didn’t know exactly what he thought of me—

But the fact that he was considering marrying his adoptive daughter to me meant that he was at least willing to take my words seriously.

Jinor stared at me for a moment, lost in thought—

Then, as if steeling himself, he slowly nodded.

"If they were planning an ambush, they would naturally take the shortest route—the central path."

"As expected. I thought so too."

Predicting Anima’s decision wasn’t difficult.

From her perspective, Hisphil Castle was empty.

So this was her chance to launch a ‘surprise attack.’

Which meant she would prioritize speed, even if it exhausted her troops.

"Hold on. Since you’ve been asking me questions, let me ask you one in return. Wouldn’t that be fair?"

"Go ahead."

"If Anima launched an ambush, then she must have had a reason to believe it would succeed. What was that reason?"

In other words—

What was Anima relying on when she decided to attack?

I didn’t have enough information to make a proper deduction yet.

I needed anything—

Any details about Anima Ingram as a person.

"In order to answer that, I need to ask about Lady Anima herself."

"You need to ask about her in order to answer my question?"

Jinor mulled over my words for a moment—

Then, finally, he responded.

"...Anima, as you know, was the chief strategist of the Aishus Army before I arrived. If you ask whether she’s talented or not, I’d say she is. I haven’t observed her for long, but she was likely the one shaping Aishus’ path from behind the scenes."

"I see. And what about her personality?"

"I wasn’t able to observe her closely since she left so soon... but one thing I do know is that she’s extremely cautious. When I took over as strategist, I reviewed all of the tactics and plans she had implemented before me. Every single one of them prioritized minimizing the risk of failure above all else. She also has a tendency to withdraw the moment she deems a plan impossible."

"Cautious, huh? That’s good enough. That means she must have confirmed whether Hisphil Castle was empty or not before making her move."

"It’s reasonable to assume so."

If she was cautious, she wouldn’t have rushed in blindly.

And yet, according to my predictions, she would still lose this battle.

There were many possible explanations, but they could largely be narrowed down to two:

First, she might have the misfortune of encountering some kind of natural disaster.

Second, Hisphil Castle might not have been as empty as she believed.

A natural disaster... let’s set that aside for now.

I couldn’t predict those with certainty, so there was no guarantee it wasn’t the cause.

No matter how unlikely it was, there was always a possibility that lightning or a meteor strike would randomly decimate the Aishus Army.

Even if that happened, the result—her defeat—would remain unchanged.

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But right now, I had to convince Jinor.

And eventually, I had to convince Yuri as well.

Imagine how it would sound if I said with a straight face, "Lady Anima will lose because a bolt of lightning will strike her army."

Would she take that seriously?

Would Jinor, standing right in front of me, believe it?

Even if I had once called down a meteor from the sky myself, natural disasters were simply too far-fetched a justification to use in an argument.

So, I needed an explanation that sounded more plausible.

Which meant the conclusion was the second possibility—

"Hisphil Castle... has troops stationed there. Troops that she was unable to detect, despite her efforts."

"Undetected troops? Now you’re speaking in riddles again."

"But it’s the truth. Troops don’t just fall from the sky or sink into the ground... which means they must be hiding somewhere..."

As I studied the map closely, something caught my eye.

"...Huh?"

"?"

Near Hisphil Castle and Raklein Castle—

Specifically, to the southeast of Hisphil Castle—

There was a low mountain range, surrounded by dense forest.

I pointed at it.

"If they were to hide their troops anywhere... it would be here."

If they had hidden their forces there, it would perfectly explain why 'Anima will lose.'

It was an ideal location for an ambush, positioned to strike the enemy’s rear.

"An ambush? ...Then there’s something odd here."

"What is it?"

"You just stated that ‘Anima will lose’ with absolute certainty. But Anima deployed more than fifty thousand troops. To force her to lose, the enemy would need an even larger force. And yet, I find it hard to believe they could conceal that many soldiers in this area."

He was right.

Hiding an army of over fifty thousand in that terrain was impossible, no matter how I looked at it.

Even if they somehow managed to do so,

How would they defend the now-empty Hisphil Castle while their forces were launching the ambush?

This alone didn’t explain why Anima was guaranteed to lose.

But no matter how I looked at it, it had to be an ambush...

Since my prediction was absolute, I needed undeniable evidence.

What was I overlooking?

Change your perspective.

I had analyzed Anima’s decision-making enough.

Now, I needed to put myself in Serpina’s shoes.

"If they’ve set up an ambush... it means Serpina’s army anticipated an attack from Aishus’ forces. Do you agree?"

"Agree or not, that’s the only logical explanation. There’d be no reason to set up an ambush otherwise."

"Then... this must be a trap, prepared in advance by Serpina."

"A trap?"

Yes.

Now that I was voicing my thoughts, the picture was becoming clearer.

This was Serpina’s trap.

"They deliberately left Hisphil Castle empty to lure Anima in. Even someone as cautious as her was convinced there were no enemy troops inside."

"A trap..."

Jinor studied the map, repeatedly checking the location I had pointed to.

"So, you’re saying Serpina’s army withdrew from Hisphil Castle and stationed their troops in this mountain range... and that’s why Anima will lose?"

"Wait a moment. That alone isn’t enough. If Anima was deceived so thoroughly, then... could it be that the ambush isn’t coming from the south, but rather from a different direction...?"

Wait.

That’s right.

Anima must have only attacked after confirming that Serpina’s army had moved somewhere else.

So where did they go?

I checked the map again.

Below Hisphil Castle was Raklein Castle.

To the right was a rugged path leading to the junction between Zelstrom Castle and Valharat Castle.

Above was another fortress controlled by Serpina’s forces.

And to the left...

That was Brans Army territory.

The northern option was unlikely.

Serpina’s forces had no reason to retreat backward.

If they had, Anima would have won, contradicting my prediction.

The rightward route would also lead to Anima’s victory.

If the enemy had moved toward Valharat Castle, reinforcements from there could have intercepted them.

And a messenger would have already reached Aishus’ forces warning them of this.

That left the bottom route—Raklein Castle.

But if Anima was hoping to seize Hisphil Castle in a surprise attack, she wouldn’t have committed her forces to a siege.

She would have known that waiting too long would waste the opportunity.

Which meant...

The only remaining option was the left—

Brans Army’s territory.

"Serpina’s army... moved as if they were preparing to invade Brans Army territory. That’s why Anima decided to strike. That’s the only possibility."

If they had deployed troops, this would have been the most natural move.

In fact, it was the only plausible move if Anima was planning an ambush.

So then... did Serpina’s army pretend to march toward Brans territory before swiftly doubling back to their ambush position?

No, that wouldn’t work.

If I followed the timeline, their forces wouldn’t have made it back in time.

Even if they rushed back, they would only reach the midpoint between Hisphil Castle and Aishus’ advancing forces.

Which meant—

Anima still had a chance to win.

If the enemy wasn’t entrenched, she could have simply called off the attack and retreated.

The entire strategy would have been too convoluted for such a minor outcome.

And then, just as I reached that thought—

"Hmm... then when exactly did they set up the ambush? Are you suggesting Serpina’s army had more troops hidden elsewhere?"

"...Ah."

The moment I heard Jinor’s words, I unintentionally let out a breath.

At that instant—

The fog in my mind lifted.

"You’re absolutely right, Lord Jinor."

"...What?"

"There are already troops stationed in the ambush site."

"!!!"

[Serpina’s forces are not limited to the main army at Hisphil Castle.]

With that assumption—

Everything fell perfectly into place.

It explained why they had abandoned Hisphil Castle.

It made every seemingly erratic movement of their troops make sense as part of a larger plan.

"They first pretended to withdraw their forces westward, luring Aishus’ army into action."

"Then, after confirming Anima’s advance, they quickly pulled back and positioned themselves south of Hisphil Castle. They couldn’t reach the ambush site in time... but that didn’t matter."

"Because the ambush force was already there."

"Even if Aishus’ army fought back, even if they tried to retreat—"

The picture was now fully visible.

Anima was walking into a trap.

"Lady Anima will lose this battle."