African Entrepreneurship Record-Chapter 458 - 136: Locust Plague and Opportunistic Exploitation

After the wedding, there were many matters for Ernst to handle. The progress of railway and factory construction was generally steady, while the supervision of canal and river modifications was Constantine’s responsibility.

"Your Highness, this is a telegram from the Northern Province. According to local government reports, a locust plague has broken out in the neighboring Wassangali Sultanate."

Ernst took the telegram and read it: "Ah, this matter! Let me see, hmm, desert locusts, old friends indeed."

Calling them old friends was hardly an exaggeration. In a previous life, Ernst had dealt with these desert locusts. Of course, much of the issue was exacerbated by the excessive hyperbole of the internet, making these locusts seem like an incurable disease, which left Ernst, who was working in Tanzania at the time, rather speechless.

The lowest level of rumor was from 2020, claiming that African desert locusts crossed the Red Sea, invaded India, and could possibly reach the Far East.

Leaving aside whether desert locusts could adapt to the Far East’s environment, the origin of that locust plague was actually the Arabian Peninsula, but irresponsible media accompanied the reports with images entirely from Kenya and Somali, misleading people to believe the plague crossed the Red Sea from Africa to India.

That locust plague indeed crossed the Red Sea, but it jumped from the Arabian Peninsula to Somali and Kenya. In essence, blame should be on the Arabian region. The locust plague’s origin was the Rub’ al Khali Desert, which spans Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Yemen. At that time, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as wealthy Middle East nations, did nothing to help, coupled with the civil unrest in Yemen, failing to timely spray pesticides, leading to a secondary breeding of locusts, thus resulting in a once-in-a-century plague, making Africa the victim.

Somali was already facing famine, and the locust plague only worsened it. Kenya’s situation was slightly better in comparison, but the plague’s impact on both countries was far greater than on the Arabian Peninsula, adding to the woes of already poor families. 𝘧𝘳𝘦ℯ𝓌𝘦𝒷𝘯𝑜𝑣𝘦𝓁.𝒸𝘰𝓂

The name itself suggests the activity area of desert locusts, as they mainly reside in desert and semi-desert regions. Expanding this suggests potentially threatened areas at the intersection of desert and grassland. Of course, if a large scale outbreak occurs, the affected area would be wider, but it’s just an impact, not necessarily devastation.

This roughly includes the entire North Africa (Sahara Desert), the Red Sea coast, the Arabian Peninsula, and the northwest arid regions of the South Asian subcontinent (current India), and the Horn of East Africa.

The regions in East Africa potentially vulnerable to desert locust invasion are the Turkana Province (Ethiopian Highlands), Northern Province and Juba Province (Somali), Eastern Province and South Prussia Province (Kenya), Uganda, South Sudan, and parts of Tanzania.

Just the phrase "parts of the region" is ingenious, because such regions are border areas, or rather, the intersection of semi-humid and semi-arid regions.

This means that desert locusts do not adapt well to the more humid southern climate, and this is indeed the case. Even so, the potentially affected areas in East Africa still exceed over a million square kilometers (dominated by desert and semi-arid desert, arid grasslands), so defensive measures must be taken.

"Inform the Ministry of Agriculture to have pest control centers in northern regions prepare preventive measures, prevent disaster spread, reduce impact on East Africa, especially the Eastern Province and South Prussia Province should strictly guard and make use of population advantages to avoid significant disasters."

East Africa is powerless to resolve desert locusts, at least currently, only trying to prevent them as much as possible.

In fact, Ernst indeed has a complete set of handling plans, but lacks the opportunity to apply them, primarily due to East Africa’s sparse population in the Somali region.

The most effective way to combat locusts is through advanced technology, which East Africa has no capacity for. Next is the human-wave tactic, mobilizing the masses with various methods to exterminate the plague.

However, East Africa’s total population in the Somali region is just over 300,000, while the desert area is more than a hundred thousand square kilometers; desert locusts live in the desert, and it’s unrealistic to send everyone into the desert to destroy locust egg sites.

Finally, there’s biological control. This method is not even considered effective; desert locusts differ from other locusts in that they live in the desert, so pastoral chickens and ducks are ineffective—who rears chickens and ducks in the desert!

Similarly, other organisms also struggle to survive in the desert, so introducing other biological control measures is unrealistic. If desert locusts become rampant, without technological solutions there are no effective ways to manage it.

Of course, East Africa is not doing nothing. Somali has a small population, but Kenya has quite a few, especially in the densely populated southern region. Moreover, the southern part of Kenya is an important cotton and coffee production area for East Africa, so local efforts must be actively mobilized to prevent locust invasion.

Monitoring locust invasion pathways and intervening manually in locust egg-laying areas with effective measures such as turning the soil, burning, or flooding.

In fact, when locusts reach the East African highlands, they can hardly pose a large-scale threat; the geography and environment will block most of them.

For instance, desert locusts extremely rely on the wind direction, usually flying with the wind, and most of East Africa is controlled by the Southeast monsoon, so desert locusts would have to fly against the wind to reach the East African highlands.

In addition, as the terrain of the East African highlands rises, the temperature decreases, while desert locusts prefer high temperatures, especially around forty degrees Celsius, where they breed fastest. This is why desert locusts do not invade regions with mid-to-high latitudes (such as Europe).

Therefore, when desert locusts break out in northern East Africa, the majority will be deflected to the Arabian Peninsula and the South Asian subcontinent (India) along with the southwest monsoon.

The current outbreak is in northern Somali, so East Africa only needs to ensure prevention in Kenya’s important agricultural area. As for the Somali region of East Africa, that can only be left to fate.

The potential consequence is merely an increase in the price of Somali bananas imported by Europe. Once the disaster passes, they can be replanted. After all, the climate is consistent year-round, with irrigation from the Shabelle and Juba Rivers, allowing replanting at any time.

"Next, prepare for grain allocation to ensure food security in the Somali region and have our people maintain communication with the Zanzibar merchants. If this locust plague expands to the Middle East, we must immediately fill the gap and seize the grain market."

If the Middle East is hit, it would be absolutely beneficial for East Africa. If each locust plague could achieve this effect, Ernst would wish for such "good news" to occur every year, as any disaster in East Africa would be insignificant.

Because Ernst never made vast agricultural investments in northern East Africa, 80% of Somali’s grain is transported from the ports of Dar es Salaam and Mombasa.

Without much investment, naturally, the losses are minimal. Although the banana cultivation in Somali is crucial, it can be substituted by other regions in East Africa.

The East African agricultural region can currently be divided into three main areas: one is the wheat cultivation area on the East African highlands, the coastal rice cultivation area, and the Great Lakes Region, which is a multifunctional planting area, growing everything.

Following that are Zambia, Zimbabwe, Turkana Province, then the northern pastures, the rubber plantations of the Mitumba Mountains, and lastly, Somali (Northern and Juba Provinces).

Essential food production and economic crop areas are unlikely to be affected by locust plagues. In a country with a free economic system, such a level of disaster would be unbearable.

However, the Kingdom of East Africa is not a country with a free economic system. The losses in affected areas would be underwritten by the state, so farmers would not go bankrupt, and without bankruptcy, there won’t be unrest.

But the Middle East is different; once it suffers great agricultural losses, it would be a headache for the Ottoman Empire and other colonies like Egypt.

Ernst, not entirely without humor, even hoped this locust plague could severely affect the wheat production in Northwest India (primarily current Pakistan), thereby allowing East Africa to capture more of the grain market.

Of course, this kind of thought is just a whim; encountering a once-in-a-century locust plague is not easy.